Els moves ahead at rainy CA Championship

Golf Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ernie Els fired a six-under 66 on Friday to move in front after the second round of the WGC-CA Championship at a rainy TPC Blue Monster at Doral.

Els, a three-time major winner, finished 36 holes at 10-under 134 and is one stroke clear of Robert Allenby, whose second-round 67 included an ace, an eagle, six birdies, three bogeys and a double-bogey.

Much like Thursday, heavy winds were the story. Officials moved Friday's tee times up in anticipation of forecasted storms, and they almost got the round in without a major incident.

Almost.

The skies opened and with six groups still on the course, play was stopped.

It wasn't until almost 2 1/2 hours later that golf resumed with everyone completing round two.

"I'm just pleased we got it done," said Els after his round and during the delay. "The weather is changing a lot. We played the last three holes very fast to get done."

Els began on the 10th tee Friday and immediately broke into red figures. His second at the par-five hole landed in a bunker, but he got up and down for a birdie.

After three straight pars, Els hit a poor drive left into a bunker, but hammered a seven-iron from 180 yards to four feet to set up a birdie. That started a great run for the South African. He birdied his next two holes for three in a row and was eight-under for the championship.

Els, who bogeyed the par-four Blue Monster 18th on Thursday to fall out of the lead, parred his last two on the front side to leave the back nine unscathed.

At the par-five opening hole, Els reached the green in two with a seven-iron and two-putted from 25 feet for another birdie. He parred his next six in a row, but had to battle a change in winds.

"Stood on the fourth tee and the wind was blowing out of the south before I played my shot and went total opposite way, came out of the normal and the temperature dropped," said Els. "Very, very strange. I think the only other time I had that happen was in Scotland when the tide changed. I think it was at St. Andrews. Other than that, I've never seen that happen."

Els' final birdie of the round came at the par-five eighth. He laid up with a nine-iron, then hit a sand-wedge to 10 feet. The Big Easy rolled home the birdie putt to take his first second-round lead on tour since his victory at the 2008 Honda Classic.

"Putted quite nicely and managed my game quite well," said Els, who won at Doral in 2002 when it was a regular tour stop. "It's in the books, and we were pretty lucky to get done. I mean, we ran the last two holes just to get it in the house. But looking forward to the weekend."

Els beat the weather, but he's been battling his game lately. He started the PGA Tour year with four straight top-20 finishes, but last week at the Honda Classic, tied for 67th.

"I didn't have it last week, so I worked really hard," said Els. "I feel really good mentally this year. I feel a little bit more fresh than I have been. I feel like I'm up for it a little bit more this year. I'm a bit more excited about my whole game."

While Els had a steady, bogey-free round on Friday, Allenby's was nothing like that.

He also started on 10 with a birdie, then holed a "perfect" five-wood for an ace at the 13th.

"Saw it all the way," he joked.

Allenby birdied 14, but double-bogeyed No. 16. The Aussie birdied 17 and reached the par-five first green in two with a seven-iron and drained an 18- foot eagle putt.

Over his next seven holes, Allenby recorded three birdies and two bogeys. He was tied for the lead with Els, but three-putted the ninth green for a bogey to fall into second.

"The conditions were pretty tough, and they weren't so bad probably for the first sort of three hours, but then that cool front, that change sort of came through and everything sort of changed," said Allenby. "The whole golf course changed."

First-round leader Charl Schwartzel finished off his final hole after the delay and had a two-under 70. He is tied for third place with Bill Haas, who shot a six-under 66, at seven-under 137.

Three-time major champion Padraig Harrington (68) and Soren Hansen (69) share fifth at minus-six.

Vijay Singh (71), Yuta Ikeda (68), Mike Weir (66), Tim Clark (69), John Senden (70) and J.B. Holmes (70) are tied for seventh at five-under 139.

Defending champion Phil Mickelson carded a three-under 69 and is part of a group tied for 13th at minus-four.

NOTES: In addition to the long weather delay, there was a 13-minute lightning stoppage earlier in the second round...While tee times were moved up on Friday to try and beat the rain, the forecast calls for sun on Saturday, so players will be in pairs off just the first tee...Last week's Honda Classic winner Camilo Villegas posted a four-under 68 Friday and is tied for 13th at four- under par.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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